Document Type : Original Article
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Faculty of Imam Mohammad Bagher, Sari Branch, Technical and Vocational University (TVU), Mazandaran, Iran.
Long-term wind speed changes have a direct impact on optimal planning and economic parameters of the HRES. This study was conducted to determine the effects of long-term wind speed variations on optimal equipment layout and planning of a Hybrid Renewable Energy System (HRES). For this purpose, integrated and comprehensive studies and collected data on wind speed changes, from 40 meteorology stations from 1975 to 2005 across Iran in four different seasons are used. To evaluate the wind potential of different regions and assess the effects of wind speed changes on wind turbine production, average seasonal wind speed changes in each decade is considered in the optimal planning of a specific HRES for eight selected cities in different regions of Iran. Homer software is used to calculate the effects of wind speed changes on the annual production of wind turbines, cost of energy (COE ($/kW)), total Net Present Cost (NPC ($)), operating cost (OC ($/yr)), and diesel generator fuel consumption (Liter/yr).
For most cities that have a major change in the long-term wind speed, the optimal number of equipment, rating power of HRES equipment, and annual production of wind turbines changed. Therefore, the COE, total NPC, and diesel generator fuel consumption change more than the initial estimation considering the stable climate condition. The study results showed that, due to changes in the annual wind speed, the annual production of wind turbines for different regions changes between -28% and +10%. For this wide range in the power production of wind turbines, the COE changes between 0.203 ($/kWh) and 0.34 ($/kWh).